Is California’s COVID Surge Worsening?

California is one of several states across the United States fighting against a “summer wave” of COVID-19 infections, driven largely by the emergence of a new dominant strain.
California is one of 20 states with “very high” levels of COVID-19 in their wastewater, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and, since the start of June, positive test rates across the state have risen from 4.1 percent to 13 percent. And, according to the latest data from the California Department of Public Health, this trend is not changing any time soon.
“According to recent surveillance data published by the California Department of Public Health, it appears that the current surge is ongoing,” Joëlla W. Adams, an epidemiologist at the Center for Applied Public Health Research, told Newsweek.
More From Newsweek Vault: What Is a Health Savings Account?
While the overall number of tests taken across the state has gone down in recent weeks, from 22,573 on July 22 to 8,982 on July 29, the percentage of these tests that have come out positive has been steadily increasing, with a roughly 1 percent increase week on week.
“To understand if the virus is still circulating and if the population is experiencing an increase in transmissions, epidemiologists will often prioritize the ‘test positivity,'” Adams said. “This shows that people who are experiencing respiratory symptoms (and therefore, are seeking out a test) have a higher likelihood of having COVID-19 than in previous months.
“While there is a recent decrease in the absolute number of tests administered, the test positivity is showing a clear upward trend that predates this decrease (seen in the figure below). This suggests increased transmission within the community and importance of preventive measures.”
It is worth noting here that, when grouped according to Health and Human Service Regions, Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas—which constitute HHS region 6—have shown the highest rates of infection, with an average of 25 percent of tests coming back positive. Meanwhile, region 4—covering Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North and South Carolina, and Tennessee—saw the largest increase in positive test rates, move than doubling from 7.2 percent to 17.5 percent in just one week.
More From Newsweek Vault: Compare the Top Health Savings Account (HSA) Providers
In an interview with The LA Times, regional chief of infectious disease at Kaiser Permanente Southern California, Elizabeth Hudson, described the latest surge as “fairly robust and long-lasting,” adding that it had gone on longer than she had expected. Hudson and others have attributed this to the rise of a new dominant variant, KP.3.1.1, which now accounts for roughly 1 in 4 COVID cases across America.
According to early analysis, KP.3.1.1, which belongs to the new class of FLiRT subvariants, is significantly more infectious than previous versions of the virus, and may also be better at evading our immune systems and immunity conveyed by existing vaccines.
In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research in Califonia, said that the new variant was “more of a challenge to our immune response than KP.3 and prior variants.”
However, while KP.3.1.1 infections have risen across the U.S. in recent weeks, hospitalizations remain relatively low and, from what we have seen so far, the new FLiRT variants do not generally cause severe symptoms. Even so, it is important to isolate yourself from others if you begin to develop symptoms.
Is there a health problem that’s worrying you? Let us know via [email protected]. We can ask experts for advice, and your story could be featured in Newsweek.